The situation in Ukraine today is absolutely disastrous in every respect, and even downright dangerous for Europe.
I - the economic situation
The economy is in tatters: Industrial production is falling, because, first, the richest mining area is precisely where the war takes place; second, exports to Russia, which are vital for the country, are also falling; thirdly, the currency lost two thirds of its value; and fourth, the financial reserves have melted like snow in the sun. The country is only supported by the European and American loans, without which it would already be insolvent. To this must be added the cost of the war, 4 millions a day.
There are also massive job losses (85% of jobs in SMEs have disappeared). The fall in exports is logical (down 30% to 35% on exports with Russia). The current account balance has collapsed, which is also the sign of the deterioration of social conditions. Household consumption has fallen by 40%, added to the effects of austerity, inflation and devaluation.
At the same time, the dream of Europe that was propagated in Ukraine sustain the immigration current. People do not invest in a country from where everyone wants to leave. There is an overall lack of motivation of the population; economic actors flee, whether in the East or the West. In wanting to avoid conscription, young people who are most active are found in Poland, Romania, etc. From the economic point of view, this flight from the country is almost the main problem, since it is useless to inject billions, they will be captured by lobbies, oligarchs, and feudalism will be rebuild.
Aleksandr Dudak, Ukrainian economist and political scientist wrote: "War, the unprecedented collapse of the economy, inflation and devaluation, all this means that Ukrainians are not only poor, but extremely poor.
"The monthly pension is now only $ 36.50, while the minimum wage is $ 47. Keep in mind that the World Bank defines poverty line as $ 1.25 a day or $ 37.50 per month. And that's not all, as the hryvnia continues to collapse. "
Today, the average salary in Ukraine is about the same in Nepal and Senegal, according to economist Alexander Okhrimenko. Therefore, any discussion about the possibility that Ukraine is on the verge of becoming an EU member is a pure fantasy.
II - the Civil War
It could flare anew very quickly, and the slight truce from Minsk 2 agreements will probably serve to the fighters only to rearm. The Western money promised by the IMF risks to be engulfed in the purchase of tanks and mortars, with which the Kiev government probably thinks to crush the insurgents. Poroshenko recently visited the Arab Emirates in order to buy new Western weapons (http://french.irib.ir/info/item/361461-l%E2%80%99otan-envoie-des-armes-en-ukraine-par-l%E2%80%99interm%C3%A9diaire-des-emirats-arabes-unis). But the attack earlier by his troops turned to the collapse, although they was probably already equipped by the Americans, and supported by mercenaries of Academy. The insurgents have resumed Donetsk airport and surrounded 10,000 men in the pocket between Donetsk and Lugansk. Russian support is very effective, including against Western weapons.
Poroshenko has imagined anything better than to sign a mobilization order to send more troops to the front; this decision obviously causes waves of discontent, many youngsters refuse to answer the call and leave the country. Such a measure can have no other result than to extend the civil war.
However, there is a very simple solution to end this war, about which none government or Western news organization wants to talk, is that the troops of Kiev withdraw from Donbass, where they have nothing to do. Everyone acts as if the presence of the army and neo-Nazis battalions in this region was legitimate: what would say people if England had sent his tanks in Scotland at the time of the referendum on independence?
III - The attitude of the West
They do nothing but throw constantly fuel to the fire; Americans have a clear interest in prolonging the conflict that allows them to seek ever new sanctions against Russia. Encouraged by this discourse, nationalists believe that the Americans will help them to win, and persist in a disastrous and hopeless conflict. The American money help also mostly to support the war effort.
On the other hand, our governments seem totally unaware of the gravity of the situation; Obama seems to believe that this is simply a part of liar's poker with Russia, and that he is in the process of winning. For Russians, it is not at all a game, but a war in which the West are getting so completely unconscious. Even for such a occidentophile leader Mikhail Gorbachev, they have simply lost their heads. Russian leaders do not understand what madness took their "partners", and why they take the risk to attack such a military power. For now, they do not react, are content to take the shots, and hope that reason will triumph by itself. But patience has limits, and if Western persists, they will respond in their own way. Obama then will understand, but much too late, he actually acted like a madman.
IV - the position of the extreme right
They are more and more nervous, and begin to speak frankly to overthrow the government. They lost men at the front, while its members thought they could overcome easily. Their resentment is immense. The explanation they begin to give to their defeat is particularly worrying: they accuse Poroshenko of betraying, and to have made a deal with insurgents to crush them. Whether it is true or not, and they believe it themselves or not, it does not matter in this case: the essentials in this speech is that it is used to prepare a future coup. They recently surrounded the Ministry of Defense, setting fire to tires; and they went by ensuring that they would return in greater numbers.
V - Current Appraisal
If we sum all these considerations: economic collapse, civil war that never ends, mobilization revolting population, totally unaware Westerners who do everything to feed conflict, Russia losing patience and the extreme right who gets angry, it’s very difficult to see how the situation would not turn to disaster.
However, this disaster is going to happen in the middle of Europe, and the possible consequences of its development are currently incalculable.
See also :